Where markets expect Bank Rate to go
The market-implied path for Bank Rate at every Monetary Policy Committee meeting, updated each business day.
These figures show what financial markets are pricing, worked out from Bank of England data. They are not our forecast and not financial advice.
Curve date 30 September 2026Bank Rate 3.75%Next MPC Thu 5 Nov 2026
Markets are pricing an 81% chance of a 0.25-point rise on 5 November; otherwise no change. By November 2027 markets expect Bank Rate of around 4.94% — the equivalent of 4.7 quarter-point rises.
Will the Bank of England raise or cut rates on 5 November?
Markets are pricing an 81% chance of a 0.25-point rise on 5 November; otherwise no change.
Where do markets expect Bank Rate in a year, and by 2027?
By November 2027 markets expect Bank Rate of around 4.94% — the equivalent of 4.7 quarter-point rises.
- Bank Rate
- Market-implied (30 Sept)
- A month ago
| MPC announcement | Expected Bank Rate after it | Change priced | 0.25-point moves priced from today | Chance of each Bank Rate level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 5 Nov 2026 | 3.95% | +20.2bp | +0.8 | 3.75%: 19% · 4.00%: 81% |
| Thu 17 Dec 2026 | 4.14% | +19.0bp | +1.6 | 3.75%: 5% · 4.00%: 34% · 4.25%: 62% |
| Thu 4 Feb 2027 | 4.32% | +18.2bp | +2.3 | 3.75%: 1% · 4.00%: 13% · 4.25%: 41% · 4.50%: 45% |
| Thu 18 Mar 2027 | 4.48% | +15.4bp | +2.9 | 4.00%: 6% · 4.25%: 24% · 4.50%: 43% · 4.75%: 28% |
| Thu 29 Apr 2027 | 4.62% | +14.1bp | +3.5 | — |
| Thu 17 Jun 2027 | 4.73% | +11.4bp | +3.9 | — |
| Thu 29 Jul 2027 | 4.82% | +9.0bp | +4.3 | — |
| Thu 16 Sept 2027 | 4.89% | +7.1bp | +4.6 | — |
| Thu 4 Nov 2027 | 4.94% | +4.3bp | +4.7 | — |
| Thu 16 Dec 2027* | 4.96% | +2.2bp | +4.8 | — |
* The Bank of England has not yet published the meeting after this one, so we assume the usual six-week gap.
| Quarter | Expected average Bank Rate | 0.25-point moves priced from today |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2026 | 3.91% | +0.6 |
| Q1 2027 | 4.28% | +2.1 |
| Q2 2027 | 4.60% | +3.4 |
| Q3 2027 | 4.81% | +4.2 |
| Q4 2027 | 4.93% | +4.7 |
| Q1 2028 | 4.97% | +4.9 |
| Q2 2028 | 4.95% | +4.8 |
| Q3 2028 | 4.91% | +4.6 |
| Q4 2028 | 4.87% | +4.5 |
| Q1 2029 | 4.83% | +4.3 |
| Q2 2029 | 4.80% | +4.2 |
| Q3 2029 | 4.78% | +4.1 |
| Q4 2029 | 4.77% | +4.1 |
| Q1 2030 | 4.77% | +4.1 |
| Q2 2030 | 4.78% | +4.1 |
| Q3 2030 | 4.79% | +4.2 |
| Q4 2030 | 4.81% | +4.2 |
| Q1 2031 | 4.83% | +4.3 |
| Q2 2031 | 4.86% | +4.4 |
How have expectations changed?
A month ago markets expected Bank Rate of around 4.47% by November 2027; now around 4.94%.
- A week ago markets expected Bank Rate of around 5.03% by November 2027; now around 4.94%.
- Three months ago markets expected Bank Rate of around 4.09% by November 2027; now around 4.94%.
When is the next MPC meeting?
The next Monetary Policy Committee announcement is at 12pm on Thursday 5 November 2026. Bank Rate is currently 3.75%.
- Thu 5 Nov 2026
- Thu 17 Dec 2026
- Thu 4 Feb 2027
- Thu 18 Mar 2027
- Thu 29 Apr 2027
- Thu 17 Jun 2027
- Thu 29 Jul 2027
- Thu 16 Sept 2027
- Thu 4 Nov 2027
- Thu 16 Dec 2027
How does Bank Rate affect my mortgage?
Tracker mortgages follow Bank Rate directly, so the path above is roughly the path a tracker would follow, plus the lender's margin. Fixed rates are priced from swap rates, which already include these expectations — which is why fixed rates can move while Bank Rate stands still.
For journalists and researchers
Free to use with credit. Our figures are published under CC BY 4.0: please credit "Mortgage Compare, contains Bank of England data" and link to this page.
Source: Mortgage Compare analysis of Bank of England data, 30 September 2026, https://mortgage-compare.uk/bank-rate-expectationsHow we work this out
Where the numbers come from
Each business day the Bank of England publishes a fitted curve of SONIA overnight index swap (OIS) rates. We use its monthly short end, 1 to 60 months: both the spot rates and the Bank's own forward rates. We also use the daily SONIA fixing and Bank Rate from the Bank's statistical database.
From the curve to each meeting
The curve gives the average overnight rate markets expect between any two dates. We take that average between one MPC meeting and the next as the rate expected after the first of them. Between the monthly points we interpolate smoothly, using the Bank's forward rates as the slope.
From SONIA to Bank Rate
SONIA usually sits a little below Bank Rate. We measure that gap over the last 20 published days, leaving out MPC days, and add it back. At the latest curve date it is -2.0 basis points.
Rises and cuts in 0.25-point steps
The MPC normally moves in 0.25-point steps, so we split each meeting's expected change between the two nearest steps. A priced change of +0.20 points, for example, reads as an 80% chance of a 0.25-point rise and a 20% chance of no change. Chaining the meetings gives the chance of each Bank Rate level. We show these for the next four meetings only: further out, treating each meeting as independent says more about the method than about the market.
Why the first meeting can be less reliable
The Bank's curve is smoothed, so a step at a meeting is blurred into the days before it. We check how far the curve's average before the first meeting sits from actual SONIA. If it is more than 5 basis points out, we mark that meeting as less reliable.
What this is not
Market prices include a small premium for uncertainty, so they are not a pure forecast. They change every day and can move sharply after data releases or speeches.
Sources and licence
Bank of England, UK OIS spot and instantaneous forward curves (yield curve data). Bank of England Statistical Interactive Database: SONIA (IUDSOIA) and Bank Rate (IUDBEDR). Mortgage Compare, contains Bank of England data. Licence: CC BY 4.0.
Frequently asked questions
Bank Rate, MPC meetings and what markets are pricing.
01When is the next Bank of England meeting?
02Are interest rates expected to rise or fall?
03What does 'priced in' mean?
04How does Bank Rate affect my mortgage?
Working in mortgages or finance? This data — and lender pricing against it — is available for analysis and research through our data and analytics service.